Deportes Puerto Montt come into this one with four wins in their last five league matches, and their home record is even stronger: three straight home wins, seven goals scored and only one conceded. That is exactly the sort of profile that suits a home win pick, especially when they have already taken 12 points from 15 and sit top of the table.

Santiago Wanderers are harder to beat than they are easy to trust on the road. They are unbeaten in four league matches, but that run has included three draws, and their away record is still winless with two draws and no away victories. Scoring has also been modest outside home, with only one away goal in league play.

The head-to-head record leans in the same direction for the visitors’ resistance, but not enough to outweigh Puerto Montt’s home numbers. Santiago Wanderers have avoided defeat in five straight meetings, yet those games have often been tight rather than dominant, and Puerto Montt have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight of the recent meetings. A 2-1 scoreline is plausible, though it also hints at a match that may be more competitive than the league leaders would prefer.

There is a small tension here because Santiago Wanderers’ recent away draws and the 1.0 xG projection for them suggest they can compete for spells. Even so, Puerto Montt’s home xG of 1.7, their 3-0 home record, and Wanderers’ lack of an away win point in the same direction. The league table also reflects the gap, with Puerto Montt first and Wanderers down in ninth.

My prediction is Home Win at 83/100. Puerto Montt have won all three of their home league matches, while Santiago Wanderers are still without an away victory. The hosts have also scored seven and conceded just one at home, and their recent league form of four wins in five is stronger than Wanderers’ run of three draws in four.