Deportivo Madryn come into this one on the back of a three-goal home win over Estudiantes de Buenos Aires, but their broader league pattern is still fairly contained: five goals scored and four conceded in five league matches, with three of those games finishing level or one-goal either way. At home, they have taken one win and one draw without losing, and only one goal has been conceded across those two league fixtures, which is a useful base for an under bet.

San Martín de Tucumán have been just as steady in a different way, with eight matches unbeaten and a run that includes several tight scorelines. Their recent away league games have been especially modest in terms of chance volume, including a 1-1 draw at San Martín de San Juan where they produced only 0.2 xG and allowed 0.6. They have also been involved in a string of low-scoring matches, with five of their last six league games staying below three goals.

The xG outlook points in the same direction. Both teams are projected at 0.7 xG, which suggests a fairly even contest with limited attacking output rather than an open shootout. The league averages also lean that way, with home matches in Primera B Nacional producing just over one goal per game and away matches even lower, at 0.69. A 1-1 scoreline is possible, but it would still sit comfortably inside the under 2.5 line.

There is also a decent head-to-head case for a cautious game: the last meeting in April 2025 finished 0-0, and the more recent one in August 2025 ended 3-1 to Deportivo Madryn, which is the main reminder that this fixture is not always sterile. Even so, the overall balance of recent form, home solidity, and San Martín’s habit of keeping matches tight points more strongly toward a low total than toward a repeat of that August scoreline.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 33/100. Deportivo Madryn have gone under in four of their last five league matches, San Martín de Tucumán have seen five of their last six league games finish below three goals, and both sides are projected at only 0.7 xG. The home and away league scoring rates are also subdued, and Madryn’s home record has featured just one goal conceded across two league matches.