Dijon come into this home game in solid shape, with four wins and two draws from their last six league matches and no defeat in that run. Their home record is less dominant than their overall table position suggests, but the 2-0 win over Saint-Étienne and the 1-1 draw with Nantes show they can keep control in front of their own crowd. That matters here because a home win needs Dijon to be the steadier side across the full 90 minutes, not just the better team on paper.

Le Havre arrive with a much shakier profile, sitting eighth and carrying four losses in their last six league outings. Their away record is only 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, and they have conceded 14 goals on the road already. The 2-2 draw with Marseille at home offered some resistance, but the heavier defeats to Lyon and Paris FC underline how often they have been chased in matches against stronger opponents or in difficult away settings.

The head-to-head record also leans toward Dijon, who have won three of the last eight meetings and took the reverse fixture 1-0 in November 2025. Le Havre have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of those meetings, which is a useful sign for a home result because Dijon do not need a high-scoring game to get over the line. Dijon’s latest 1-0 away win at Lens and their 2-0 home win over Saint-Étienne also fit the pattern of a side able to manage tight matches when they are in rhythm.

There is a small tension in the pricing because Dijon’s home numbers are not flawless, with four draws from nine at home and only eight goals scored there. Even so, Le Havre’s away concessions and their four-match winless stretch point more strongly toward the hosts, especially with Dijon unbeaten in six and conceding only twice across their last three league games. The xG line of 1.5 to 0.9 also leaves Dijon with the clearer edge in chance quality.

My prediction is Home Win at 73/100. Dijon have the better recent form, they are unbeaten in six league matches, and Le Havre have lost four of their last six. Le Havre’s away record is weaker than Dijon’s overall standing, while the head-to-head trend also favours the hosts after Dijon’s 1-0 win in the reverse fixture.