Djibouti come into this preliminary tie in poor shape, with six straight defeats and no win in 16, so they have little recent evidence of being able to control a match for long periods. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in 11, which matters here because South Sudan do not need much to find a way through, even if their own attack has been uneven.

South Sudan are not in dominant form either, but their results have been harder to beat than Djibouti’s, with three draws in their last six and only one defeat since their 13 October stalemate with Togo. That run does not scream free-scoring quality, yet it does point to a side that can stay organised enough to avoid slipping to a loss against weaker opposition. The only head-to-head note in the data is a 0-0 draw between the sides in 2015, so a cautious contest is not hard to imagine.

Even so, the attacking numbers lean toward South Sudan having the better chance of taking control. Djibouti’s recent defeats have often come with conceded goals early or in clusters, while South Sudan’s xG projection of 1.6 is comfortably ahead of Djibouti’s 0.7. The expected scoreline sits at 1-2, which is not a heavy away win, but it does fit a game where South Sudan create the clearer chances and Djibouti are left chasing.

Djibouti’s home record in this sample is also worrying for them: losses to Sierra Leone, Egypt and Burkina Faso came without any real sign of a stabilising response, and the database trend of first to concede in eight of nine adds to that concern. South Sudan have not won often, yet they have drawn three of their last six and have the better overall platform to nick this one if the match stays tight for long stretches.

My prediction is Away Win at 2/5. South Sudan’s recent record is more resilient, with three draws in their last six and only one defeat in that spell, while Djibouti are on a six-match losing run. The xG edge also points away from the hosts, at 1.6 to 0.7, and Djibouti have gone 11 matches without a clean sheet, which gives South Sudan a clear route to three points even if the margin is narrow.