Eibar come into this on four matches unbeaten, but their recent results have been tight rather than open. They have kept three clean sheets in that spell, including a 1-0 away win at FC Andorra and a 0-0 home draw with Burgos, and their last six league games have produced only nine goals in total. That kind of pattern sits well with an under, especially when the home side have been comfortable in low-scoring games at Ipurua.

Las Palmas also arrive with recent scorelines that lean towards control rather than chaos. They beat Sporting Gijón 1-0 on 22 March and had earlier won 4-0 against AD Ceuta and 3-0 at Cultural Leonesa, but their away matches have usually been more contained, with 16 goals scored and 13 conceded across 15 trips. Even their xG numbers are not especially high for this fixture, with the projection sitting at 1.3 for Eibar and 0.8 for Las Palmas.

The home and away splits point the same way. Eibar’s home record of 10 wins, four draws and two defeats has come with just 11 goals conceded, while Las Palmas have drawn seven of their 15 away matches and average only 1.1 goals per away game. In a contest where both sides are solid enough without being explosive, a low total looks more natural than an end-to-end game.

There is one small tension for an under bet: Las Palmas have scored first in five straight league matches, so they may well get an early foothold again. Even so, Eibar have not lost in four and have gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last 10, while the head-to-head also includes several tight meetings, including a 1-1 draw and two 1-0 results in this fixture.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 1/2. Eibar’s recent run has been built on short scorelines, with three clean sheets in four unbeaten matches and only one goal conceded in their last two league games. Las Palmas’ away record is steady rather than free-scoring, and their 15 away matches have averaged just 1.9 total goals. The xG forecast of 1.3 to 0.8 also points to a game that should stay below three goals.