England’s recent results have been mixed but open, with four draws and two losses in their last six and only one clean sheet in that spell. They have still found ways to get on the front foot at times, scoring in four of those six, and the lone 1-0 win over Portugal shows they can edge tight games at home when they stay compact.

The stronger argument for a home win is England’s habit of striking first: they have been first to score in seven of their last eight, and they have also led at half-time in seven of those eight. That matters against a Poland side that have gone five matches without a clean sheet, so England should get enough early control to shape the game on their terms.

Poland arrive with more volatility in their recent form, having won three and lost three of their last six. Their away results are not flat, but the 0-1 defeat to Portugal at home in this section and the 0-2 loss to Montenegro underline that they can be held down by disciplined opponents, especially when they do not land the first goal.

The projected 2-1 scoreline fits a home win, though it also hints that Poland can threaten, which is why this is not a comfortable outright. England’s xG edge is only modest at 1.4 to 1.2, but their stronger first-half pattern and Poland’s five-game run without a clean sheet point to the home side having the better platform to turn a close contest their way.

My prediction is Home Win at 31/50. England have been first to score in seven of their last eight and first-half winners in seven of eight, which is a strong fit for a home victory market. Poland have gone five straight games without a clean sheet, and their recent away profile includes results that show they can be beaten. England’s last home win over Portugal and the expected tight margin still leave some tension, but the home side have the clearer edge for this one.