England’s recent results give the strongest case for both teams scoring because they are still creating enough to score while no longer looking airtight. They have five wins and one draw from their last six, but the latest game was a 1-1 home friendly against Uruguay on 27 March, ending a run of four straight clean sheets. The projection also points toward goals at both ends rather than a one-sided result, with England at 1.6 xG and Japan at 1.1 xG.

Japan bring credible scoring threat of their own. They have four wins, one draw and one loss from their last six, and they have scored in four of those six matches, including three against Brazil and two against Paraguay. The main counterpoint for this market is that they have kept three straight clean sheets, so there is some tension with a BTTS pick, but those shutouts do not remove the fact that they have also shown enough going forward to trouble England.

The latest Japan performance supports the idea that they can contribute the away goal needed here. In the 1-0 win over Scotland on 28 March, they produced 18 shots, seven on target and three big chances before Junya Ito scored late. Those chance numbers matter more for this market than the clean sheet itself, because they show Japan are arriving here with active attacking output rather than just defensive control.

One extra angle in favour of goals at both ends is England’s recent habit of striking first. They have scored the opening goal in ten straight matches, which strengthens confidence in the home side doing their part for BTTS. If England go ahead again, Japan’s recent scoring record gives them a fair chance of forcing the second half into the kind of game this market needs.

My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.91. England scored in all of their last six and just conceded at home to Uruguay, Japan have scored in four of their last six and created 18 shots against Scotland, and the xG projection of 1.6 to 1.1 is consistent with a 2-1 type match rather than a shutout.