England come into Friday evening on six straight wins, and all six were to nil. That is strong match-result evidence for a Home Win rather than just a goals angle, because they have not needed high-scoring games to get over the line. Their xG projection here is 1.9 against Uruguay’s 0.9, which points to England creating the better chances and limiting the visitors to relatively little.

Uruguay are not in poor shape, with two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six, but the away results are less convincing for an outright result bet against England. They lost 2-0 in Paraguay and then drew 0-0 in Chile, and across those two away games they scored no goals. A 2-1 correct-score lean does suggest some risk of Uruguay contributing, so this is not a completely comfortable home-result case, but England still hold the stronger win profile.

The latest England performance also supports the home side. In the 2-0 win away to Albania on 16 November, they led the chance quality 1.66 to 0.60 on xG, had more shots, more efforts on target and more big chances, with Harry Kane scoring both goals. That was another example of England doing enough to win while keeping control of the match.

One team-specific streak stands out here: England have scored first in ten straight matches. For a Home Win pick, that matters more than broader scoring trends, because an early lead has been a consistent platform for them and they are already on an 11-game unbeaten run since the loss to Greece in October 2024. Uruguay’s three-game unbeaten spell is respectable, but it has included two goalless draws and does not match England’s current level.

My prediction is Home Win at 1.53. England have won six in a row, all six without conceding, they have scored first in ten straight matches, and their latest win over Albania came with a clear edge in xG and big chances. Uruguay’s recent away record is less persuasive for opposing this, with a loss in Paraguay and a goalless draw in Chile.