Estrela Amadora U23 arrive short on confidence, with just one win in their last seven league games and no victory in their last six at all. Their recent run has been heavy on tight, low-scoring draws and narrow defeats, including a 1-1 draw at Vizela U23 on 18 March and a pair of goalless home matches against Portimonense U23 and Estoril Praia U23.

That home output does not give much encouragement for their chances against a side in better rhythm. Estrela’s last home league outing ended in a 0-2 loss to UD Leiria U23, and their only recent goal at home in this sequence came in defeat. Even the reverse fixture on 11 February finished 2-1 to Rio Ave U23, which is a useful reminder that this matchup has already leaned the visitors’ way once this season.

Rio Ave U23, by contrast, have won their last six league matches and are unbeaten in eight. They have mixed clean away results such as the 1-0 win at SC Farense U23 with more open scoring games, and they have also taken care of business at home, so their form carries both resilience and enough attacking output to trouble Estrela again.

The xG numbers also point slightly towards the visitors, with Estrela Amadora U23 projected at 1.1 and Rio Ave U23 at 1.4. That is not a huge gap, so a narrow away win is the more realistic angle rather than anything emphatic, but the combination of Estrela’s long winless spell and Rio Ave’s six-match winning streak keeps the away side in control of the matchup.

My prediction is Away Win at 9/5. Rio Ave U23 have won six straight league matches and are unbeaten in eight, while Estrela Amadora U23 have gone seven games without a win. The visitors also took the earlier meeting 2-1, and Estrela’s recent home form has included a 0-2 defeat to UD Leiria U23 and two goalless draws, which leaves them short of the edge needed to stop Rio Ave again.