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Ethiopia come into this qualifier with a mixed but mostly respectable home record, and that matters here because their best results have been in front of their own crowd. They beat Guinea-Bissau 1-0 in their most recent home game, and they also routed Djibouti 6-1 on 24 March, so they have shown they can turn home pressure into goals against weaker opposition.
São Tomé and Príncipe are a more fragile away side, which is the bigger concern for them than the occasional surprise result. They have lost five of their last six matches, and on their travels they have shipped three against Namibia, two against Liberia and two against Equatorial Guinea, while also suffering a 6-0 home defeat to Tunisia in between. That sort of defensive record leaves them vulnerable if Ethiopia get on the front foot early.
The head-to-head record also leans toward the hosts, with Ethiopia winning 3-0 in São Tomé and Príncipe on 27 March 2026 and another 3-0 away win back in October 2015. São Tomé and Príncipe did beat Ethiopia 1-0 in 2015, but the more recent meeting is the better guide, and it was one-way traffic.
Ethiopia’s xG projection of 1.8 against São Tomé and Príncipe’s 0.9 points to a home side that should create the clearer chances, even if the away team can still nick something. Ethiopia have already beaten Guinea-Bissau 1-0 and Djibouti 6-1 at home in this wider qualifying cycle, while São Tomé and Príncipe have tended to concede first and then chase games from behind.
My prediction is Home Win at 9/20. Ethiopia have the stronger home results, they have already beaten São Tomé and Príncipe 3-0 in the recent head-to-head, and the visitors have lost five of their last six overall. São Tomé and Príncipe’s away form has been leaky enough to leave them exposed again, even if Ethiopia’s projected 1.8 xG does not promise a complete rout.
