FC Bayern München arrive with an exceptional home and league record that fits a straight home win. They are unbeaten in 19 Bundesliga matches overall, have won 19 of 20 league games, and at home they have taken nine wins and one draw from ten with only three goals conceded. Nürnberg, by contrast, have lost four of their last five league matches and have struggled on the road, where they have only two wins from ten.

The goals profile also leans heavily toward Bayern control rather than any upset resistance from Nürnberg. Bayern have scored 79 league goals and allowed only six, while Nürnberg have conceded 51 in 21 games. Bayern’s home figures of 36 scored and three conceded are far more one-sided than the league average, and Nürnberg’s away record of 10 goals scored and 20 conceded points to a difficult afternoon if Bayern start quickly.

Recent form only strengthens the same side of the argument. Bayern have won their last six in all competitions, including a 5-0 league win at SGS Essen and a 3-0 win at Köln, while their latest outing was a 3-2 away win at Manchester United. Nürnberg have lost their last two league matches, and their most recent defeat at home to Köln came despite only two shots on target. Bayern also beat Nürnberg 6-0 in their most recent meeting, so the head-to-head has already shown a wide gap.

There is a small tension with the scoreline projection of 3-1, because Bayern’s home defensive numbers are usually tighter than that, but it still leaves room for a clear home victory. Nürnberg have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight meetings with Bayern, and they have also been first to concede in five of their last six league games. That combination makes a Bayern win the safest angle.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/33. Bayern have won all nine of their home league matches this season apart from one draw, they are unbeaten in 23 overall, and they have already beaten Nürnberg 6-0 in the reverse fixture. Nürnberg’s away record is only two wins from ten, and they have lost four of their last five league games, which leaves little to suggest they can take points here.