FC Carl Zeiss Jena come into this one in poor league form, with three matches without a win and only two victories across the season. Their home record is especially thin for a side trying to contain a stronger visitor: no home wins, just two draws and eight defeats, with 28 goals conceded in ten league games. That kind of record does little to support them avoiding defeat here.

RB Leipzig have been much steadier, and their recent run of one defeat in their last six league matches gives them a clear edge in the away-win market. They have also scored in enough of their recent outings to travel with confidence, and their away return of three wins, two draws and five losses is still far healthier than Jena’s home numbers. The overall gap in the table, 25 points to 10, points the same way.

The head-to-head record also leans toward Leipzig, who are unbeaten in six against Jena and have already beaten them 2-0 in the reverse league fixture in November 2025. Jena have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine straight matches, which is a bad fit against an away side that has found two goals in several recent games. The 1-2 scoreline forecast is reasonable, though Jena’s home xG level suggests they can still threaten once.

RB Leipzig’s recent 2-0 win over SC Freiburg showed they can control games when required, while Jena’s 0-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen and 0-2 home loss to Wolfsburg underline how often they fall short against stronger opposition. The projected xG also favours Leipzig at 2.0 to 1.1, which leaves the away side with the clearer attacking outlook even if the match is not a complete mismatch. That is enough to keep the away side in front in the betting.

My prediction is Away Win at 21/50. Leipzig are unbeaten in six against Jena, Jena have no home wins in the league this season, and the hosts have gone nine matches without a clean sheet. Leipzig’s away record is also notably stronger than Jena’s home form, and their recent scoring run gives them a solid base to take the points.