FC Fleury come into this one with only one defeat in their last six league games, and their recent run has included wins over Quevilly-Rouen Métropole and Aubagne FC as well as a draw away at FC Versailles 78. At home, they have been competitive rather than dominant, but they have still scored in enough games to keep pressure on visiting sides, including 13 goals in 11 home matches.

Bourg-en-Bresse are still far less convincing on the road, with three wins, three draws and seven defeats away from home in National. They have also lost three of their last five league matches, and their most recent outing away to FC Versailles ended in a 1-0 defeat after producing only 0.4 xG. That kind of away output makes this a difficult assignment, especially against a Fleury side that has generally been harder to beat.

The goal picture is not completely one-sided, though, because Fleury have gone seven league matches without a clean sheet and Bourg-en-Bresse have also failed to keep one in six. Fleury’s recent games have often opened up, with five of their last six producing more than 2.5 goals, and they have scored first in five of those six. Bourg-en-Bresse can still nick a goal, as shown by their 2-2 draw at Quevilly-Rouen Métropole and the 3-1 win over FC Rouen, so the home win case is stronger than a clean-sheet angle.

There is a small tension here in that the projected scoreline of 2-1 is not a comfortable margin, but Fleury’s overall profile still points the right way. They are seventh in the table with 38 points, while Bourg-en-Bresse sit 14th with 22, and the away side’s 11 defeats in 25 league matches leave them vulnerable when they travel. Fleury’s 1.7 xG projection compared with Bourg’s 1.0 also supports the idea that the hosts should create enough to edge it.

My prediction is Home Win at 7/10. Fleury are unbeaten in three, they have lost only one of their last six league games, and their home record is stronger than Bourg-en-Bresse’s away return. Bourg-en-Bresse have lost three of their last five, and their latest away performance produced just 0.4 xG. With Fleury scoring regularly and Bourg struggling to keep games tight on the road, the home side look the likelier winners.