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FC Kuressaare come into this on the back of a heavy 4-0 loss at Nõmme Kalju, and their season figures are not encouraging: three goals scored and eight conceded from three league games. At home they have only one win so far, with three scored and two conceded, so they have not been easy to shut out, but they have also not shown much control over matches.
Paide Linnameeskond have been more reliable, especially away from home where they have taken a point from two league trips and scored four times in the process. Their latest outing at FCI Levadia Tallinn finished 2-2 after they created 2.1 expected goals, which fits a side capable of finding chances on the road even if the defending is not always perfect.
The head-to-head record leans their way as well, with Paide unbeaten in 14 straight meetings with Kuressaare. That history has also been lively, with both teams scoring in seven of the last seven clashes and Paide scoring first in ten of the last ten, which is important here because Kuressaare have not kept a clean sheet in four matches.
There is a small tension with the away-win angle in the sense that Paide have not been dominant on their travels this season, but Kuressaare’s defensive record is the bigger concern. Their 0.8 xG projection is modest, while Paide are forecast at 1.8 xG, and that gap fits the pattern of a side more likely to edge the match than to be denied.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/5. Paide have stayed unbeaten in 14 straight head-to-head meetings with Kuressaare, they have scored in all of those recent clashes, and Kuressaare are coming off a 4-0 defeat with only three league goals scored so far. Paide’s 1.8 xG projection also points to the stronger attacking output, even if their away record is not flawless.
