FC Tulsa come into this one with four wins and two draws from their last six in all competitions, and their home league record is solid enough for a home result to carry real weight. They have taken four points from two league games at this ground, scoring three and conceding two, while their most recent home league outing ended 3-2 against Las Vegas Lights with a strong chance count and 1.3 xG against just 0.6 at the other end.

Phoenix Rising FC have been less convincing away from home, with no points from their only league trip so far and only one goal scored in that match. Their overall league return is still winless after three games, and the 2-2 draw with Oakland Roots SC on 22 March left them conceding twice again, which is not ideal for a visit to a side that has already shown it can finish chances at home.

The head-to-head also leans Tulsa’s way in this venue, with FC Tulsa beating Phoenix 1-0 in November 2025 and drawing 1-1 in June 2025, while the meeting in March 2025 ended 0-1 to Tulsa away from home. That sits alongside a recent Tulsa home sequence that has been hard to break down in this matchup, even if one earlier cup meeting did produce goals.

There is a small tension for Tulsa backers because the projected score is only 2-1 and Phoenix have found the net in two of their last three league games, but the away side’s league travel record remains thin. Tulsa’s home edge, Phoenix’s lack of an away point, and the way recent meetings have tilted toward the hosts all point in the same direction.

My prediction is Home Win at 67/100. FC Tulsa are unbeaten at home in the league this season, Phoenix Rising FC are still without an away point, and Tulsa have already beaten Phoenix 1-0 at home in the recent head-to-head. The hosts also created the better chances in their 3-2 win over Las Vegas Lights, while Phoenix’s latest league draw again showed they can be opened up.