Forlì come into this one with only one win from their last six league matches, but their home numbers are much steadier, with six wins, five draws and four defeats at this ground. That matters for a home win call because they have collected 23 of their 35 points in home fixtures and have scored 22 while conceding 17 there, a far healthier balance than their overall record suggests.

Pianese are higher in the table and have avoided defeat in seven straight league games, yet their away profile is less commanding than their standing indicates. They have drawn eight of 15 on the road, scored only 11 away goals and averaged just 1.1 goals per away match, which leaves them vulnerable if this turns into a tight, low-margin contest rather than a clear away-dominant performance.

Recent results also point to a match that can be decided by fine details rather than a large gap. Forlì’s last two home league games ended 2-2 and 1-1, while Pianese have just come through a 2-2 draw with Pontedera after a narrow 1-0 home win over Pineto and two goalless away draws. That blend fits a narrow home edge more than a comfortable away success, even if Pianese’s unbeaten run is a real obstacle.

There is a small tension for Forlì because Pianese’s seven-match unbeaten sequence and 44-point season total give the visitors plenty of resilience. Still, Forlì’s stronger home scoring record, Pianese’s modest away output, and the fact that Pianese have drawn more than they have won on their travels all lean toward the hosts holding the edge in a close game.

My prediction is Home Win at 21/20. Forlì have six home wins already this season, Pianese have only four away wins, and the visitors have drawn eight of their 15 road matches. Pianese’s away goal return is limited, while Forlì’s home goal difference is positive and their recent home results have kept them competitive. The 2-1 scoreline also suits a match where the margin could stay narrow rather than decisive.