France U19 come into this one after a 2-2 draw with Norway U19, a result that followed a narrow 0-2 loss to Italy U19 and leaves them unbeaten in one, with three wins, two draws and one defeat across their last six. The bigger point for a home win is that France have still picked up results regularly, and they have already beaten Latvia U19 and Poland U19 in this broader run. Switzerland U19, by contrast, arrive on the back of a 1-4 defeat to Croatia U19 and have not won in their sampled matches.

There is also a clear edge in the head-to-head record for France U19, who are unbeaten in four meetings with Switzerland U19. Those games have often gone against the Swiss when the pressure rises, and France have scored in all but one of those four encounters. That sort of history matters here because it points to France having enough control to avoid dropping points again.

France’s recent attacking output is another reason to favour the home side rather than a cautious double-chance angle. They have scored in five of their last six matches, and the 1.7 xG projection for this fixture sits above Switzerland’s 1.1, which fits a France-led contest. The fact that France have also won five of their last six to score first underlines how often they put themselves in front, even if the 2-2 draw against Norway shows they are not always comfortable after taking an edge.

Switzerland’s away form does little to raise confidence in an upset. Their last outing ended in a three-goal defeat to Croatia U19, and they have now gone three matches without a win overall. Even so, France are not in completely dominant shape either, so the price on a home win has to do the heavy lifting in a game where a 2-1 scoreline looks more plausible than a routine blowout.

My prediction is Home Win at 2/5. France have the better recent results, they are unbeaten in four straight head-to-head meetings with Switzerland U19, and their 1.7 xG forecast is stronger than Switzerland’s 1.1. Switzerland’s latest away defeat also leaves them short on momentum, while France have been scoring enough at home to justify backing them to take the three points.