France U21 arrive with clear momentum for a home win, having taken five wins and a draw from their last six and scoring freely in the process. The 5-1 away victory over Luxembourg U21 on 26 March added another sharp attacking display, while earlier results such as 6-1 against Estonia U21 and 6-0 at the Faroe Islands underline how often they turn control into a result.

Iceland U21 are not a side to ignore, though, because they have gone unbeaten in four and have avoided defeat in five of their last six. Their recent away wins at Luxembourg U21 and the 0-0 draw at Switzerland U21 show some resilience, but they have also been open at the back, and that matters against a France attack that has been far more productive.

The head-to-head record also leans France’s way, with two clean-sheet wins in the last three meetings and only one Iceland victory across the five most recent clashes. That said, Iceland have scored in five of their last six, so a narrow home success is a more realistic read than a routine shutout. France’s xG edge, 1.9 to 1.6, points to a deserved home edge, even if the away side can still contribute to the scoreline.

France also carry the stronger first-goal profile, having opened the scoring in five of their last six, and they have been first-half leaders in five of their last six as well. Iceland’s run includes three wins, but their clean-sheet record has not held up consistently, with three of their last six ending without one. That combination suits a home result more than a cautious double-chance angle.

My prediction is Home Win at 17/100. France have won five of their last six and have the more convincing attacking output, while Iceland’s recent away results have not come against opposition as strong as this. The head-to-head record favours France too, and although Iceland’s habit of scoring keeps a 2-1 type of game in play, the home side still looks the likelier winner.