Germany U19 come into this with plenty of attacking output in recent competitive games, scoring three or more in their last two outings and finding the net in five of their last six. That run includes the 3-3 draw with Spain U19, where they created 2.5 xG and still conceded 3.2 xGA, so they are not in a phase of locking matches down. The pattern also points to early action, with Germany first to score in five of their last six, which matters more here than any clean-sheet expectation.

Sweden U19 arrive with less recent data available, but one useful trend is that they have stayed under 2.5 goals in five of their last six. That gives this fixture a slightly more cautious edge from their side, even if Germany’s recent games have been much looser. The contrast is important because Germany have hit more than 2.5 goals in six of their last six, so the scoring profile leans heavily toward Germany carrying the main threat.

The projected numbers also sit in favour of the hosts, with Germany at 1.6 xG and Sweden at 1.4 xG. That is not a massive gap, so it does not point to a straightforward runaway home win, and the 2-1 correct-score lean reflects that tension. Still, Germany’s habit of scoring first and controlling the opening spell gives them a better route to taking the points than Sweden’s limited recent attacking sample suggests.

There is no finished head-to-head sample to lean on, so the best evidence is current form and output. Germany’s last six read as four wins, one draw and one loss, and they have been unbeaten in their last three. Sweden’s lack of recent match data leaves the away side with less to recommend them, especially against a Germany team that has at least been producing goals consistently.

My prediction is Home Win at 2/5. Germany have won four of their last six, they have scored in five of those six, and they have been first to score in five of six as well. Sweden’s recent profile is harder to judge, but their under-2.5-goal tendency does not offer much support for upsetting a home side with stronger attacking numbers and a higher xG projection.