Germany U21 have kept their qualifying campaign moving in the right direction, winning five of their last six and scoring at least twice in each of those victories. The 2-0 away win over Georgia U21 on 18 November followed a 6-0 home rout of Malta U21 and a 2-1 success away to Northern Ireland U21, which underlines how often they arrive with the upper hand already established.

Northern Ireland U21 have been less convincing on the road, with four goals conceded in their away defeat to Greece U21 on 18 November and only one win in their last four qualifiers overall. Their away results in this group include a draw at Georgia U21 and a loss in Germany, while the return to Germany now looks awkward given the gap in attacking output and control from the first meeting.

The head-to-head record also leans strongly toward the hosts. Germany U21 have no losses in their last five meetings with Northern Ireland U21, and they have beaten them 2-1, 3-0, 3-0 and 3-0 across that sequence, which is a useful pattern for a home win selection even if the projected 2-1 scoreline leaves a narrow margin.

Germany’s recent numbers fit a home victory better than a cautious approach: 30 shots and eight on target in the 2-0 win over Georgia U21, plus three big chances created, show they can sustain pressure for long spells. Northern Ireland’s 0-4 defeat in Greece was a reminder that when they fall behind, they can be stretched badly, and their away profile is not as secure as the home record might suggest.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/10. Germany U21 have won five of their last six, they already beat Northern Ireland U21 2-1 away in this group, and the head-to-head trend is firmly in their favour with five straight meetings without defeat. Northern Ireland’s away loss to Greece U21 and their lack of consistency on the road only reinforce the case for the hosts.