Germany have won all six of their last six matches, and this market needs both a home victory and goals. They have supplied that combination repeatedly, scoring three or more in four of those wins, including 6-0 against Slovakia, 4-0 against Luxembourg, 3-1 against Northern Ireland and 4-3 away to Switzerland. The 30 March friendly comes with a correct-score lean of 4-1, which matches the idea of Germany winning while the total clears three goals.

Ghana bring the clearest case for the goals side of the bet, but not much for the result side. They have lost four in a row since their two World Cup qualifying wins, and three of those defeats came away from home without scoring before the 5-1 loss in Austria on 27 March. That latest game was especially poor defensively, with Ghana managing only five shots, one on target and no big chances while allowing four big chances and conceding five.

Germany’s own most recent match also pointed strongly toward this combo market rather than a simple match result. In the 4-3 win over Switzerland they produced 22 shots, nine on target and eight big chances, so the attacking volume was far stronger than the scoreline alone. Florian Wirtz scored twice and assisted twice in that game, and Germany have also been first to score in five of their last six, which matters for a bet that wants them ahead and the match opened up.

There is one small note of caution: the xG projection is only 1.6 for Germany and 0.9 for Ghana, so it is a touch less emphatic than the 4-1 score call. Even so, that still points toward Germany creating the better chances, and Ghana have gone three matches without a clean sheet while arriving off a heavy defensive collapse against Austria.

My prediction is Home Win & Over 2.5 at 1.57. Germany have won six straight and scored at least three in four of those victories, while Ghana are on a four-match winless run and were beaten 5-1 by Austria on Friday. Germany also created 22 shots and eight big chances against Switzerland, which is exactly the kind of attacking output this market needs.