Greece U21 go into this qualifier with six straight wins and no defeat in their last seven games, and that kind of consistency suits a home win call more than a cautious market. Their recent home results have been especially decisive, with four goals against Northern Ireland U21 and three against Georgia U21, while they also beat Malta U21 5-0 away earlier in the group. Malta’s away record is harder to trust, with five losses in their last six and only one win in that span.

The head-to-head record also leans heavily one way, with Greece U21 winning all three of the most recent meetings and keeping clean sheets in each of those victories. Malta have failed to score in five of their last six matches, which is another warning sign for anyone expecting them to take points here. Even when Greece are not at their most controlled, they have still tended to land the first blow, which matters when backing the home side rather than a goal line.

There is a small wrinkle in the projected scoreline, because the model lands on 3-1 rather than a shutout, so this is not a pure clean-sheet case. Still, Greece’s attacking output has been strong enough to absorb that, with five wins by more than 2.5 goals in their last six and a 4-0 home win most recently against Northern Ireland U21. Malta also arrived here off a 1-0 home loss to Latvia U21, which does little to suggest they can withstand another fast start from the hosts.

Greece’s home numbers in this campaign have been well above the sort of output Malta have handled lately, and the broader matchup points in the same direction. Malta have been first to concede in all six of their recent qualifier games, while Greece have been first to score in each of their last six. That combination is exactly what you want behind a straight home win.

My prediction is Home Win at 3/100. Greece have won six in a row, they have already beaten Malta 5-0 in this group, and Malta have lost five of their last six while failing to score in five of those matches. The home side have also been first to score in each of their last six, which gives the shortest result in the market plenty of support.