Gubbio come into this on the back of a 2-2 draw away to Juventus Next Gen U23, and that result extended a mixed run of one draw, three wins and two losses across their last six league games. At home, though, they have been harder to beat than their overall table position suggests, with five wins, seven draws and only three defeats at this ground.

Ravenna arrive in stronger league shape, sitting third with 61 points, and their recent sequence includes four wins, one draw and one loss in their last six. They also travel with a decent away return of six wins, four draws and six defeats, while their away goals record of 20 scored and 19 conceded points to a side that can compete on the road rather than just protect a lead.

For an away win, Ravenna’s edge is clear enough in the numbers. They are 18 wins deep in the season, have already taken 22 points from their away fixtures, and their latest home clean sheet against US Livorno 1915 added to a solid defensive base. Gubbio’s home record is respectable, but they have also taken only 22 points there and conceded in four of the last six meetings with Ravenna, which is a useful warning sign for the hosts.

The scoring outlook is not extreme, which suits Ravenna’s chances of nicking it. The xG projection is only 0.9 to 1.2, so a tight contest looks more likely than a comfortable one, and the head-to-head has produced a draw at Ravenna earlier this season as well as several narrow games. Even so, Ravenna’s better season-long record and stronger recent form give them the cleaner profile for taking all three points.

My prediction is Away Win at 12/5. Ravenna are third in the table with 18 wins already, they have taken six wins from 16 away matches, and Gubbio’s home record is steady rather than dominant. Ravenna have also scored in enough of their recent road games to edge a low-margin contest, while Gubbio’s recent home loss to Ascoli shows they can be beaten there.