Huracán come into this cup tie without a win in five, but their recent run has been stubborn rather than chaotic: four draws and one defeat in that stretch, with three straight home clean sheets against Barracas Central, River Plate and Sarmiento spread across the league form sample. The 0-0 against Barracas Central on 24 March also came with 15 shots and four on target, so they are still creating enough to lean toward a home breakthrough even when the scoreline stays tight.

That profile matters because Olimpo have no recent data to lean on here, which leaves Huracán’s home control as the clearest guide. The xG projection of 1.7 to 0.2 points to a match where the hosts should be on top in territory and chance quality, while the league benchmark also favours the home side’s attacking output over the away side’s. Huracán do not need a wide margin; they only need one strong enough spell to turn pressure into a result.

The head-to-head record adds a useful note too, with Huracán having scored first in all five of the listed meetings. Even though older clashes between these teams were often open, the more relevant angle for this game is that Huracán have tended to get ahead early enough to control proceedings, and that fits a home side expected to dominate a lower-rated visitor.

There is a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Huracán’s recent league games have often been low-scoring and Olimpo’s lack of current data makes their attacking threat hard to gauge. Still, Huracán have gone five games without a win, so a home response feels due, and their recent home clean-sheet sequence suggests they should have enough defensive base to avoid another slip.

My prediction is Home Win at 2/5. Huracán have gone five games without a victory but have still drawn three of their last four, which points to a side close to turning pressure into three points. Their 1.7 to 0.2 xG edge is a clear home advantage, they have kept three straight home clean sheets in the recent sample, and the head-to-head record shows Huracán scoring first in all five listed meetings.