Inverness Caledonian Thistle come into this one unbeaten in their last six league matches, with four wins and two draws in that spell, and they have also avoided defeat in 15 games since their last loss in late December. That kind of consistency matters for an over line because they are still finding ways to score even when the game turns tight, as shown by the 1-1 draw at Alloa Athletic and the 3-1 home win over Peterhead.

Queen of The South have been less secure at the back, especially away from home, where they have taken five wins, three draws and six defeats in the league. Their recent sequence also points towards goals at both ends: they have gone four league matches without keeping a clean sheet, and their last six league outings included a 2-2 draw with East Fife, a 3-1 win at Hamilton Academical and a 3-2 defeat at Montrose.

The head-to-head record adds to that case for goals. The sides drew 2-2 in January, Inverness won 4-0 in the meeting at this ground in November, and Queen of The South’s last three visits to Inverness have produced three, four and two goals respectively. Inverness have also scored first in seven of the last seven meetings, which tends to give these fixtures an open feel once the game gets moving.

There is a small tension with the recent 1-1 draw for Inverness and the fact that they can control games without always turning them into shootouts, but the stronger pattern is still towards both sides contributing and the total moving past two. Inverness have scored in each of their last six league matches, Queen of The South have been involved in plenty of higher-scoring scorelines, and the xG projection of 1.9 to 1.1 points to chances for both teams rather than a flat, low-event contest.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 7/10. Inverness have scored in six straight league matches, Queen of The South have failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight league games, and the recent 2-2 meeting between these sides supports another open contest. The January draw, Inverness’s 4-0 home win in November, and Queen of The South’s away results all fit a game where three goals is a realistic target.