Italy arrive with a strong home edge for this kind of pick, even if the latest sample is mixed. They have gone six games unbeaten, with wins over France and Slovenia alongside four draws, and that points to a side that usually avoids defeat even when they do not run away with matches. Hungary, by contrast, have already split their last three and their away win over Iceland was followed by a loss in Denmark, so they do not travel with much security.

The goal pattern leans Italy’s way as well. Their last six have included only one match with more than three total goals, and they have kept things tight enough to post a clean sheet against France and another against Slovenia. Hungary’s recent away fixture ended 1-0, which does not scream a wide-open contest, but their 1-3 home loss to Austria also shows they can be stretched when the pressure rises.

There is still a little tension with the correct score projection because Hungary have found a goal in this head-to-head before, and the 2-1 call leaves room for that. Even so, Italy have often controlled this matchup, winning the most recent meetings in dominant fashion at 7-2 and 3-0, while Hungary have only rarely kept Italy quiet. That history sits comfortably with a home result, especially if Italy score first as they have done in five of their last seven.

The bigger picture also favours Italy on home turf. Hungary have lost two of their last three and have only one win in that spell, whereas Italy have not tasted defeat in six. The away side’s recent record suggests they can compete for phases of the game, but they have not been reliable enough on the road to push this into a true 50-50 contest.

My prediction is Home Win at 33/100. Italy’s six-match unbeaten run gives them the cleaner base, Hungary have lost two of their last three, and the head-to-head record has leaned strongly toward Italy in recent meetings. The 2-1 projection leaves a small opening for Hungary to score, but the home side still look the likelier winners.