Italy arrive in strong shape for this Elite round meeting, having won four of their last six and stayed unbeaten in their last seven games. The most recent result was a 3-0 home win over Hungary U19 on 25 March, while the 2-0 win at France and the two draws against Spain and Latvia show a side that keeps control of matches and rarely gets dragged into trouble.

That recent profile fits a home win angle because Italy have also been first to score in seven of their last nine, which usually gives them the platform they need at this level. Their head-to-head record with Slovakia is also a positive one, with three wins in the last four meetings, including clean-sheet victories in 2022 and 2019. The 1.8 to 0.9 xG projection leans Italy’s way as well, even if it still leaves room for Slovakia to nick a goal.

Slovakia come in on a much weaker run, with no wins in their last three and just one victory in their last five. They lost 1-0 to Türkiye U19 on 25 March, failed to score in defeats to Poland and Georgia, and their only recent away success was the 3-0 win over Montenegro in November. That lack of consistent output makes it hard to trust them to avoid defeat here.

There is some tension with the price because Italy are not being asked to dominate by a huge margin, and Slovakia have at least scored in one of their recent draws. Even so, the stronger overall form, Italy’s habit of striking first, and the head-to-head edge all point to the hosts finding a way through. A 2-1 scoreline also fits the idea that Slovakia can compete without necessarily stopping Italy from winning.

My prediction is Home Win at 27/100. Italy have won four of their last six and are unbeaten in seven, while Slovakia have gone winless in three and scored just once across their last three defeats. Italy also have the better head-to-head record, with three wins in the last four meetings, and their 1.8 expected goals to Slovakia’s 0.9 leaves them as the likelier side to take the points.