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Kəpəz come into this one on a useful home run for the away side to worry about, because they have gone four league matches unbeaten and have kept Qarabağ out in a 1-0 win, while also drawing 1-1 with Turan Tovuz and 2-2 away at Zirə. Their home record is still patchy overall, but the recent mix of results has been competitive enough to keep them in games, which matters here because Qəbələ have not been offering much resistance on their travels.
Qəbələ’s away numbers are the stronger argument for the visitors, though even they are far from convincing on the season. They have only one away win in the league, alongside three draws and nine defeats, and they are without a win in eight matches overall. That poor run is still live after the 3-2 defeat at Turan Tovuz on 21 March, and it sits alongside a record of conceding in six straight league games.
There is also enough goal threat in Qəbələ’s recent away games to keep them relevant in the scoring market. Their last six league matches have produced plenty of action, including 3-2, 1-3, and 7-1 defeats, while both teams have scored in five of their last five. Kəpəz have also been involved in open enough games at home, and the projected 1-2 scoreline fits the idea of Qəbələ nicking it without needing a dominant performance.
The head-to-head record does not block an away angle either. Qəbələ beat Kəpəz 3-1 in a friendly in January and won 3-0 in the league at the same ground in September 2025, so they have shown they can handle this fixture away from home. Kəpəz have been better lately, but their home league record still leaves room for a visiting win if Qəbələ can turn their recent scoring into something more controlled.
My prediction is Away Win at 7/4. Qəbələ’s away record is weak, but they still have the better season goal return and Kəpəz’s home profile is not especially strong. The visitors have been scoring in recent league games, while Kəpəz have only one clean sheet in their last four and have lost enough at home this season to leave the door open. The head-to-head also includes a 3-0 Qəbələ win here in September 2025, which is a useful reminder that they can take this fixture.
