Pisa look the weaker side for a straight result bet. They are bottom of Serie A with only two wins from 30 matches, and they have lost five of their last six league games. Their home record is also poor at two wins, four draws and nine defeats, with just seven goals scored in 15 home matches.
Torino are not reliable enough to make this a risk-free away pick, but their overall profile is still stronger than Pisa’s. They have taken 33 points to Pisa’s 18, and their recent league form includes two wins from the last four, beating Lazio 2-0 and Parma 4-1. Away from home they have only three wins all season, so that is the main concern behind the price.
Pisa’s latest outing was a 5-0 defeat at Como on 22 March, and the performance was as poor as the scoreline suggests. They produced only 0.4 xG, failed to register a shot on target, and created no big chances. For a team already struggling near the bottom, that is a worrying sign before facing an opponent with more attacking threat.
There is one small supporting angle in Torino’s favour from the head-to-head record: Pisa have not beaten them in the last four meetings. The reverse league fixture ended 2-2 in November, which does underline the fact that Torino can still leave room for trouble, and the projected xG of 1.0 to 1.1 is fairly tight for an away-win call.
My prediction is Away Win at 2.45. Pisa have lost five of their last six league matches, they have only two home wins all season, and they were blown away 5-0 by Como in their most recent game. Torino sit well above them in the table and have shown a higher ceiling lately with wins over Lazio and Parma.
