Larne arrive in the Championship Round in strong shape, with four wins and one draw from their last six league matches and no defeat in their last four. The home record is even more convincing, with just one loss all season at this ground and 32 goals scored against only 10 conceded. That profile gives them a solid base for taking control again on Saturday evening.

Cliftonville are not easy to dismiss entirely, because they have five away wins on the season and 19 points on the road, but their recent away results are less stable. They have lost two of their last three league matches, including a 3-0 defeat at Glentoran and a narrow loss at Coleraine, so the trip to the league leaders comes at a difficult time. Their last outing also ended 2-2 with Ballymena United after Rory Hale’s red card, which underlines some fragility.

The head-to-head also leans Larne’s way. They are unbeaten in the last three meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 away win in October and a 0-0 draw at home in December. That latest stalemate is a reminder that Cliftonville can frustrate them, though Larne’s home dominance and Cliftonville’s recent away dip point more clearly toward the hosts.

There is a small tension around the goals angle, since Larne versus Cliftonville has produced fewer than 2.5 goals in six of the last six meetings, while the current xG projection sits at 1.5 to 1.2. Even so, Larne’s stronger home defence, Cliftonville’s recent lack of clean sheets, and Larne’s habit of getting on the scoresheet first make a home result the more reliable angle than chasing a low-scoring upset.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/3. Larne have won four of their last five league matches, they are almost flawless at home with only one defeat, and Cliftonville have lost two of their last three away games. The head-to-head edge also sits with Larne, who are unbeaten in the last three meetings, so the hosts look best placed to turn their home superiority into another three points.