Latvia U19 arrive in poor shape, with six matches without a win and three defeats in their last four outings. They were beaten 3-0 by Denmark U19 on 28 March and 3-0 by Czechia U19 three days earlier, which underlines how difficult it has been for them to stay competitive against stronger opposition.
The bigger concern for Latvia is that they have been giving up goals regularly, failing to keep a clean sheet in three straight games and losing both of their most recent elite-round fixtures without scoring. Belgium’s away profile is much healthier, and their 1-0 win over Czechia U19 on 28 March showed they can handle tight games without losing control.
Belgium come into this with four matches unbeaten and eight games without a defeat in the broader sample, which is exactly the sort of away resilience that suits a straight win call. They have also managed to keep things compact in several recent outings, including a goalless draw with Denmark U19 and a 1-0 success in Czechia, even if the 3-2 win over Israel U19 shows they are not always watertight at the back.
There is a slight tension with the expected scoreline because Latvia’s recent games have often been lopsided, while Belgium’s attack has not always been prolific away from home. Even so, Latvia’s lack of wins, Belgium’s unbeaten stretch, and the 1.7 to 0.9 xG projection all point in the same direction.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/10. Belgium have not lost in eight, Latvia are winless in six, and the home side have been beaten in three of their last four matches. Belgium also beat Czechia U19 away on 28 March, while Latvia were comfortably beaten by Denmark U19 on the same day, which fits a clear away-success angle despite Belgium’s occasionally modest scoring output.
