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Latvia U21 come into this qualifier unbeaten in two, having drawn 1-1 with Georgia U21 on 27 March after a 1-0 away win over Malta U21 in November. Their overall recent run is still patchy, but the home side have at least kept games tight, with five of their last five league matches finishing under 2.5 goals.
Northern Ireland U21 arrive after a 3-0 defeat away to Germany U21 on 27 March, and that followed a mixed spell of two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last six. The bigger point for this trip is that their away results have not been especially secure, and they have also been beaten by Latvia already in this group.
That 1-0 loss in Northern Ireland on 13 November is the main head-to-head reference, and it points to a narrow contest rather than a wide-open one. The xG projection is only 0.9 for Latvia U21 and 1.2 for Northern Ireland U21, which fits a low-scoring, close game even if it leaves room for a slightly awkward margin either way.
Latvia’s recent low-event pattern is hard to ignore, especially with five straight league games going under 2.5 goals. Northern Ireland’s 0-3 loss to Germany and their earlier 1-2 home defeat to Germany show they can be exposed when the opponent steps up a level, and Latvia’s draw with Georgia suggests enough resistance to keep this competitive.
My prediction is Away Win at 43/20. Northern Ireland U21 already beat Latvia U21 1-0 in this group, Latvia’s recent form includes just one win in six, and their five straight under-2.5 results suggest they often stay close but can still be edged. The xG split also leans slightly toward the visitors at 1.2 to 0.9, which suits a narrow away success such as 1-2.
