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Leicester head into this Friday evening fixture after a goalless draw at Watford, but that clean sheet sat alongside 2.23 xG, 15 shots and four big chances, so the chance creation was there even if the finishing was not. Their home record is mixed, with 26 scored and 28 conceded in 19 league games, which fits a side capable of contributing at both ends rather than shutting matches down.
Preston arrive on the back of a 3-1 win over Stoke, a game in which they generated 2.84 xG and four big chances, while their recent away results have been far less tidy with three losses in four on the road before that. They have also conceded in eight straight without a clean sheet in the wider run, and that sort of fragility away from home is a useful pointer for a Both Teams To Score angle.
The numbers point to goals at both ends more than to a one-sided contest. Leicester are winless in their last two, but they have still scored in three of their last six, and Preston have both scored and conceded regularly across recent matches, including defeats in which they still found the net. The head-to-head also leans this way, with both teams scoring in the most recent meeting and Preston failing to keep a clean sheet in ten of the last ten meetings listed.
There is a small tension in Leicester’s recent 0-0 at Watford, yet the underlying attacking output from that match and Preston’s openness away from home keep the BTTS case alive. The projected 1-1 scoreline also matches the pattern of both sides being able to create chances without looking secure defensively, especially with Preston conceding 25 away league goals and Leicester allowing 28 at home.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 4/5. Leicester’s last away trip produced a 0-0, but the underlying numbers were strong enough to suggest chances are still being created. Preston have scored in recent games while also giving up goals, and they have gone ten straight meetings with Leicester without keeping a clean sheet. The 1-1 projection fits that balance better than a shutout for either side.
