Lithuania are the clearer side to oppose for the match-result market. They are winless in 14 matches and their last six brought four defeats and two draws, with no victory even against Malta in either meeting. Under Edgaras Jankauskas, the recent sample also includes home losses to Poland and the Netherlands, which is poor grounding for a result bet on the hosts.

Georgia are not arriving in great shape either, with four defeats and one win from their last six, but the level of their performances has generally been stronger than Lithuania’s. Their xG projection here is 1.6 against Lithuania’s 0.5, and the model’s correct-score lean of 1-2 fits an away win even if it suggests Lithuania could keep the game competitive. Willy Sagnol’s side at least showed they can beat this level of opponent when they won 3-0 at home against Bulgaria.

The latest matches underline the gap. Lithuania lost 4-0 away to the Netherlands on 17 November and were second best on the main numbers, finishing with only 0.5 xG, one shot on target and eight shots faced on target. Georgia lost 2-1 in Bulgaria on 18 November, but that defeat was less worrying for this market because they posted 1.5 xG to 0.8 against, had 17 shots to three, and still nearly rescued something with an 88th-minute goal from Luka Lochoshvili.

One extra result angle also points the same way: Georgia won the last friendly meeting between these teams 4-0 in March 2018. That is old enough to treat carefully, but it still adds to the case when set beside Lithuania’s long winless sequence and Georgia’s better attacking expectation for this game.

My prediction is Away Win at 1.73. Lithuania have gone 14 games without a win, they have lost four of their last six, and their recent home results include defeats to Poland and the Netherlands. Georgia’s recent results are mixed, but the 1.6 to 0.5 xG projection and their stronger underlying numbers in the Bulgaria defeat give them the better chance of taking the result.