Longford Town come into this one after a 2-0 home win over Wexford FC on 21 March, while Finn Harps also arrived from a narrow away defeat at Kerry FC. The recent numbers point to a tight contest rather than a wide-open one, with Longford’s last six producing only six goals for and six against, and Finn Harps’ last six finishing with seven scored and eight conceded. That balance sits close to a one-goal game either way, which is exactly the kind of shape that can decide an away win on a small margin.

At home, Longford have been solid enough but not dominant, with one win, one draw and one loss and just three goals scored in three league matches. Finn Harps’ away record is weaker on paper, with no away wins, one draw and two defeats, but they have still shown enough to stay competitive, taking two goals from those trips and losing both away matches by only a single goal. The xG projection is similarly tight at 1.2 for Longford and 1.5 for Finn Harps, so the edge for the visitors is there, even if it is not a commanding one.

The head-to-head history also leans toward a cautious, close-fought game. Six of the last six meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, and that fits the recent league scores for both clubs. Longford’s 2-0 win over Wexford was their first victory in a little while, but Finn Harps have not been blown away on the road, and their away defeats have stayed narrow enough to keep this in reach late on.

Finn Harps’ broader form is not perfect, though, and that is the main reason this pick needs some care. They are without a win in four league matches, and their last outing ended in a 1-0 defeat at Kerry FC despite respectable attacking numbers. Even so, Longford’s home output has been modest, and if Harps can turn one of these close away performances into a cleaner finishing display, the away side should have the stronger chance of taking the points.

My prediction is Away Win at 27/20. Finn Harps have the better xG projection, Longford have only scored three goals in three home league matches, and Harps have been more productive overall in the table with seven scored compared with Longford’s six. The head-to-head is usually tight, but the visitors’ recent away losses have been narrow rather than heavy, which leaves room for a one-goal success.