L.R. Vicenza come into this on a run of four wins in their last five league games, and their home numbers are even stronger: 13 wins, one draw and two defeats, with 31 goals scored and only 10 conceded. That sort of record is exactly the sort of base you want when backing a home win, especially against a side that has found goals hard to come by in the run-up to this fixture.

Union Brescia are second in the table and have been difficult to beat away from home, with eight wins, six draws and only two losses on the road. Even so, their recent away spell has been flat, with three straight goalless games and no win in four, so their current output does not quite match the strength of their season-long away record.

The balance of the numbers still leans Vicenza’s way. They have won three straight league matches overall, while Union Brescia have gone four without a win and have not scored in four consecutive games. The only head-to-head available finished 1-1 in November, so there is some caution in the matchup, but Vicenza’s superior home scoring and Brescia’s recent lack of punch point more towards the hosts taking control.

The projected scoreline of 2-1 fits the idea of Vicenza edging it rather than cruising, and that is not far from Brescia’s away defensive record, which has conceded only seven in 16 away matches. Still, Vicenza’s recent away win at Renate showed they can produce enough quality to get past a strong side, and their home attack has been far more reliable than Brescia’s attack in the last few weeks.

My prediction is Home Win at 83/100. Vicenza have the stronger home record, they are in better recent form with four wins in their last five, and Brescia arrive after four matches without a victory. Brescia’s away record is respectable, but three consecutive away games without scoring is a concern, while Vicenza’s 31 home goals give them the edge to finish the job.