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Real Madrid bring the clearest win case here. They are second in LaLiga with 22 wins from 29 matches, while Mallorca are 18th with 15 defeats already. Away form strengthens that further: Madrid have the best away record in the league at 9 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, compared with Mallorca’s overall season return of only 7 wins from 29.
Mallorca are not an easy home side to brush aside, which is the main caution around an Away Win pick. They have taken 22 points from 14 home games and are 6 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses there, so they avoid defeat regularly enough on their own ground. Even so, their recent league form is still weak overall, with four losses, one draw and one win from their last six.
Recent results lean heavily toward the visitors. Real Madrid have won five straight matches in all competitions, including league wins over Atlético Madrid, Elche and Celta Vigo, and they have five wins in a row as a team-specific streak coming into Saturday evening. Mallorca’s latest outing was a 2-1 loss at Elche on 21 March, and they also missed a stoppage-time penalty in that game after VAR awarded it.
The head-to-head record adds one more nudge toward the away side without needing to overdo it. Real Madrid are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Mallorca, and they won the reverse fixture 2-1 on 30 August 2025. The projection is not a complete mismatch either: expected goals come out at about 1.0 for Mallorca and 1.7 for Madrid, which supports an away edge even if it is not an overwhelmingly one-sided number.
My prediction is Away Win at 1.60. Real Madrid have the league’s best away record at 9 wins from 14 trips, they arrive on a five-match winning run, and Mallorca have lost four of their last six league games. The season gap is also large, with Madrid second on 69 points and Mallorca down in 18th on 28.
