Under 2.5 goals has a clear case because Luxembourg matches have been consistently short on scoring. They have lost their last six, but more relevant here is that they have failed to score in five of those games and four of their last five finished with fewer than three goals. The xG projection is also modest at 0.8 for Malta and 1.1 for Luxembourg, which points more toward a tight total than an open game.

Malta bring a mixed recent record, with two draws, one win and three losses from their last six, and their scorelines have been more volatile. They drew 0-0 with Lithuania in June, won 1-0 in Finland on 14 November, but also had heavier defeats against the Netherlands and a 2-3 home loss to Poland. That recent Poland game is the main counterpoint to an unders pick, although even there Malta’s xG was only 1.4 and this matchup looks far less demanding at the top end.

Luxembourg’s most recent game strengthens the low-scoring angle. Their 0-1 defeat away to Northern Ireland on 17 November came from just 0.6 xG for and 0.6 xG against, with only six shots on target combined. That is the profile of a controlled, chance-light match rather than one that regularly pushes beyond two goals.

There is also one useful head-to-head pointer: the last three meetings between these sides all ended with two goals or fewer, including Malta’s 1-0 win in June 2023 and Luxembourg’s 1-0 win in March 2018. The correct-score call of 1-1 does create some tension because it uses up most of the margin on the line, but it still sits on the right side of the under.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.57. Luxembourg have not scored in five of their last six matches, four of their last five have stayed under 2.5, and their latest away game ended 0-1 with both teams producing only 0.6 xG. The projected xG here is also only 1.9 combined, which is low enough to keep the total onside.