Manchester United arrive after a five-game winning stretch in the league, but their 2-3 loss to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on 25 March showed they can still be opened up at home. In the WSL they have been harder to beat, yet the home split is not flawless with five wins, three draws and one loss at Leigh Sports Village, and that leaves enough room for City to avoid defeat again.

Manchester City are top of the table with 46 points and only two league defeats all season, while their away record is also solid at five wins, one draw and two losses. They come in after beating Tottenham 5-2 on 21 March, and they have scored at least once in each of their last six league matches apart from the 0-0 at Aston Villa, which keeps them well placed to take something from this derby.

The head-to-head picture also leans City’s way for an X2 angle. City won 3-0 in the league meeting at the Etihad in November 2025, and although United have enjoyed some strong results in older meetings, the more recent pattern points to City being the side more likely to avoid defeat. United’s busy schedule is a minor concern for the hosts, especially after the Bayern game only three days before this one.

There is a small tension with the fact that United have scored in all six of their last matches, so this is not a clean clean-sheet case for City. Even so, City’s league record, stronger away numbers, and their ability to turn tight games into points make the away side or draw the safer route than trying to call a straight winner in a derby that could still be competitive.

My prediction is Double Chance X2 at 1/4. Manchester City are unbeaten in four league matches, they have lost only twice in 18 WSL games, and their away record of five wins, one draw and two defeats is stronger than United’s home record of five wins, three draws and one loss. The 3-0 win in the November 2025 meeting also supports City avoiding defeat, even if United’s recent scoring run means the hosts should not be dismissed outright.