Melbourne City arrive with plenty of attacking rhythm, winning four of their last six and scoring in five of those games. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 away win over Western Sydney Wanderers, where they created 2.8 xG, produced four big chances and still conceded, which is a reminder that this is not a clean-sheet machine even in good form.

FC Nasaf have only three recent continental results in the data, but they have already shown they can score away from home, beating East Bengal 3-0 in their latest match. They also drew 1-1 with Wuhan Chegu Jiangda, so there is at least some evidence of a reply going in at the other end, although the sample is too small to treat them as reliably dangerous every time.

The scoring profile points more towards Melbourne City doing enough than towards a tight, cautious knockout tie. City’s home games have been lively, with three goals against Canberra United and five against Brisbane Roar among their recent league matches, while Nasaf’s away results in this competition have already produced both a 3-0 win and a 1-1 draw. That leaves the door open for a home victory, but the projected 2-1 scoreline also hints that Nasaf may contribute to the goal count.

Melbourne City’s home edge matters here. They are unbeaten in their last six, have won their last match, and their recent away win still came with strong underlying numbers, including 12 shots, six on target and four big chances. Against that, Nasaf have only one match in the database outside their 3-0 win, so there is less to trust in terms of consistency.

My prediction is Home Win at 11/100. Melbourne City’s unbeaten run is now six games, they have won four of their last six overall, and their recent chance creation has been strong enough to support a result at home. Nasaf have shown they can score, but the sample from their continental campaign is limited, and City’s attacking output should be enough to get them through even if the match is not completely comfortable.