Netherlands U21 arrive after a five-goal defeat at Norway U21, a match that was open from start to finish and featured chances at both ends. Before that, they had two wins and two draws in their previous four, while their last six fixtures have produced four games with at least three goals. Belgium U21 are not a team to drag games into low-scoring territory either, coming in on the back of a 1-0 home win over Austria U21 and with several recent outings that reached two or more goals.

The underlying scoring numbers point in the same direction. Netherlands U21 have just come off a 3-2 loss, and their recent run includes a 2-2 draw with Israel U21 and a 2-0 win over Slovenia U21, which gives a decent spread of outcomes without much evidence of long defensive control. Belgium U21 have been more efficient than explosive at times, but their 7-0 away win at Wales U21 and 2-0 victory over Denmark U21 show they can push a match beyond the two-goal mark when they get on top. The combined xG projection of 2.6 also sits above the line.

There is some tension from Belgium’s recent low-scoring results, including 1-0 wins over Austria U21 and a 2-0 win over Denmark U21, but that does not fully outweigh the stronger scoring profile in this fixture. The head-to-head history is mixed rather than cagey, with a 2-1 Belgium win and a 1-4 Belgium loss in the last two friendlies, alongside a 0-0 at the 2023 European Championship. That split history still leaves room for goals, especially with Netherlands U21 having conceded three in their latest outing.

Belgium’s recent away profile also supports a lively match. Their 7-0 win at Wales U21 is the standout, and even the 1-1 draw at Belarus U21 shows they are capable of contributing away from home. Netherlands U21, meanwhile, have not kept many recent games tight, and their last six include two losses and two draws, which is enough to keep the game open if they are asked to chase it.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 3/5. Netherlands U21 have just played a five-goal game against Norway U21, Belgium U21 have already been involved in a 7-0 away win this campaign, and the xG projection of 2.6 is a touch above the line. The recent head-to-heads have also produced a 2-1 and a 1-4 in this fixture, so while Belgium’s latest 1-0 win is a reminder that they can keep things tight, the balance still leans toward three goals or more.