Newport County come into this with mixed home form, having won only three of their 19 league games at Rodney Parade and taking just 18 goals in those matches. Shrewsbury’s away record is similarly modest, with only four away wins all season and 19 goals scored on the road, so neither side carries the profile of a free-scoring traveller. The recent numbers also lean toward a tighter game: Newport’s last six have produced two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Shrewsbury have lost four of their last six and have gone three league matches without a win.

That low-scoring angle is reinforced by the head-to-head record, which has gone under 2.5 goals in all five of the last five meetings listed. Newport’s home games average 2.6 total goals from their 18 for and 32 against, while Shrewsbury’s away matches sit at 3.0, but those season figures still leave room for a cautious contest rather than a wide-open one. Both teams have also been prone to inconsistency in front of goal, with Shrewsbury failing to score in three of their last six league matches and Newport keeping one clean sheet in their last six.

Newport’s latest result was a 2-1 defeat at Walsall on 21 March, a match that finished with 1.12 xG for them and 1.58 against, so they were competitive without looking especially efficient. Shrewsbury were far more fragile in their 0-4 home loss to Crewe Alexandra, yet that sort of heavy setback can often push a team toward a more conservative response rather than another open-ended game. The projected xG of 1.2 for Newport and 1.1 for Shrewsbury also points to a match where chances should be limited enough to keep the score down.

Newport do have a slight habit of seeing both teams score at home, and Shrewsbury have been without a clean sheet in six, so a single goal each is a live possibility. Even so, the longer-term meeting history and the recent run of patchy finishing from both sides keep the total-goals angle leaning under rather than over. With Newport winless in two and Shrewsbury winless in three, a careful first half and a narrow margin on the scoreboard would fit the shape of this fixture.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 67/100. Five straight head-to-head meetings have stayed under this line, Shrewsbury have failed to score in three of their last six league games, and Newport’s home output is not strong enough to promise a high total. The xG projection is only 1.2 to 1.1, which leaves little margin for a three-goal match, even if Newport’s recent home record does carry a slight risk of both sides nicking one.