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NK Istra 1961 come in with mixed league form, but their last two outings have brought a win over Varaždin and a clean sheet away at Rijeka. At home they have generally been competitive, with five wins, four draws and four defeats in the league, yet their 14 goals scored in 13 home matches point to a side that can be held down for long spells. That matters here because they are not usually involved in very open games at Poljud standards, even if recent results have been a little more lively.
Hajduk arrive with stronger numbers and a clear edge on the road, where they have taken seven wins, three draws and three defeats and scored 22 goals. Their last two league games also support attacking expectation: a 6-0 away win at Vukovar 1991 and a 2-1 home victory over Lokomotiva. The away record is particularly useful for this market, since Hajduk have been finding goals consistently enough to push matches past the two-goal mark on their travels.
The head-to-head also leans towards a higher-scoring game, with six of the last eight meetings seeing both teams score. NK Istra have scored in three of the last four league meetings with Hajduk, including a 2-1 away win in January, so they are not without a route to contribute. Even so, the 1-2 correct-score projection and the xG line of 1.2 to 1.9 point more to Hajduk carrying the greater share of the attacking burden.
There is a small tension because Istra’s recent home matches have not been consistently free-scoring, and they have kept the total under 2.5 in four of their last five league games. Even so, Hajduk’s away profile and their recent surge in chance creation give this fixture a better chance of landing beyond two goals than the home numbers alone would suggest. With Hajduk first to score in seven of their last eight league matches, the game state could open up quickly.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Hajduk’s last two league matches produced eight goals, they have gone over 2.5 goals in four of their last five, and Istra’s recent league meeting with them finished 1-2 in January. Istra have also scored in three of the last four head-to-heads, which keeps the total in play even if their home scoring record is not especially explosive.
