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Port Vale’s case for a home win starts with Rotherham’s away record, because it is one of the weakest in the division. Rotherham have taken only 11 points from 19 away league matches, with 14 defeats in those 19 trips, and they have scored just 13 times while conceding 32. Port Vale’s home return is not strong overall, but three wins and seven draws from 19 home games is still a better platform than what Rotherham have produced on the road.
Rotherham also arrive in poorer recent form for this market. They are winless in six matches, with three draws and three defeats, and their last three away league games have all ended in defeat without a goal scored, losing 1-0 at Huddersfield, 5-0 at Peterborough and 3-0 at Lincoln. Port Vale have only one win from their last six in all competitions, but that home win over Bolton is still more relevant here than the FA Cup loss at Chelsea.
There is a counterpoint, because Port Vale are hardly reliable. They have lost four of their last six matches in all competitions and sit bottom of the table with 29 goals scored and 54 conceded across 38 league games. The projected edge is also not huge, with expected goals at 1.6 to 1.2, so this is not a dominant home spot and a narrow game would be no surprise.
One supporting angle is Rotherham’s general slide rather than any long list of side trends. They have gone six games without a win, and their most recent league outing on Friday 3 April was a 0-0 home draw with Stevenage in which they managed only one shot on target before Daniel Gore’s late red card. That does not strengthen the case for them ending a poor away sequence on Tuesday evening.
My prediction is Home Win at 2.35. Rotherham have lost 14 of 19 away league games, they are winless in six overall, and their last three away league matches have all been defeats to nil. Port Vale are weak too, but they did beat Bolton 1-0 in their most recent home league win, and the xG projection still gives them the higher attacking figure at 1.6 compared with 1.2 for Rotherham.
