Ñublense come into this group fixture without a win in their last two, after a 1-1 draw at Cobresal on 22 March and a 2-2 draw with Deportes La Serena on 16 March. That is not a poor run for staying competitive, but it does leave them needing more control at both ends, especially against a side they have already failed to beat this month.

Universidad Católica have taken seven points from their last three league and cup outings, including a 2-1 home win over Universidad de Concepción on 22 March and the 2-1 away win at Ñublense on 1 March. They have also scored in five of their last six and averaged 1.6 xG in the projection here, which is a useful sign for an away side expected to create enough chances again.

The head-to-head record leans the same way, with Universidad Católica unbeaten in four against Ñublense and two wins already posted in the most recent meetings. Ñublense have also gone six straight head-to-head games without a clean sheet, so even when they are competitive, the away side usually finds a way through. The 1.2 to 1.6 xG split is close enough to suggest a tighter contest, but not one that clearly favours the hosts.

There is a mild tension with the projected 1-2 score, because Ñublense have avoided defeat in three of their last four overall, yet that run has come with just one win and a couple of draws rather than firm home dominance. Universidad Católica, by contrast, have more of the recent away-winning edge in this pairing, and their ability to score consistently gives them a stronger base for taking three points again.

My prediction is Away Win at 13/8. Universidad Católica have already beaten Ñublense in the most recent meeting, they are unbeaten in four head-to-heads, and Ñublense have not kept a clean sheet in six straight clashes between the sides. The away team’s recent scoring record is also stronger, with goals in five of their last six matches, which suits a match result pick on the visitors.