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Once Caldas come in with mixed league form, but their home record is solid enough to keep them in the game: four wins, two draws and one loss at home, with 16 scored and 11 conceded. They have also been involved in a run of matches where both sides have found the net, and that fits the wider pattern of 25 goals scored and 18 conceded in the league so far.
Independiente Medellín arrive with plenty of attacking life despite sitting lower in the table. They have scored in five of their last six in all competitions, including two straight league wins before the narrow defeat at Independiente Santa Fe, and they have also conceded in several of those games. Away from home their league record is only two wins, two draws and three defeats, with nine goals scored and ten conceded, which leaves them looking capable but not especially secure.
The head-to-head record also leans toward goals at both ends. Four of the last five meetings produced both teams to score, and the most recent clash in October 2025 finished 5-1 to Independiente Medellín. Once Caldas have also gone four games without a clean sheet, so they are not coming into this with much defensive comfort.
There is a slight tension with the xG projection, which sits close at 1.2 for Once Caldas and 1.1 for Independiente Medellín, but that still points to a competitive, open contest rather than one side shutting the other out. Once Caldas have scored in five of their last six league games, while Independiente Medellín have found the net in six of their last seven BTTS-leaning fixtures, so both attacks have enough recent evidence behind them.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 31/50. Once Caldas have gone four matches without a clean sheet, Independiente Medellín have scored in five of their last six, and the head-to-head has delivered both teams to score in four of the last five meetings. The home and away splits also fit that read, with Once Caldas conceding 11 in seven home league games and Medellín allowing 10 in seven on the road.
