Padova welcome Empoli to the Stadio Euganeo on Sunday afternoon in Serie B, and both clubs arrive with plenty still hanging in the balance. Padova are 17th on 34 points, just about keeping their heads above the lower reaches of the table, while Empoli sit 14th on 36. That gap is tiny. One decent afternoon can change the mood completely, and one bad one can drag either side back into trouble.
For Padova, this is about halting a nasty slide and making sure the season doesn’t drift into something uglier. Roberto Breda’s side haven’t won in six league matches, and they’ve been losing far too often for comfort. Empoli, under Fabio Caserta, are only a couple of points better off, but they’ve at least shown a bit more life in attack. Their problem is simple: they keep letting games slip. That’s why this feels like a meeting between two teams who can score, but don’t look especially reliable when it matters.
Padova Form & Analysis
Padova’s recent run tells a blunt story. They went to Frosinone on 5 April and came away with a 2-0 defeat, and that followed a home loss to Palermo by the same scoreline. Before that, they were beaten 3-1 at Venezia and 3-1 at home by Catanzaro. The only point in the last six came in a 2-2 draw with Spezia on 3 March. Since then, it’s been one defeat after another. No wins in six. That’s the sort of sequence that eats away at confidence.
The home record doesn’t offer much comfort either. Padova have won only three league matches at the Euganeo all season, with seven draws and six defeats. They’ve scored 18 and conceded 22 at home, which is hardly catastrophic, but it does point to a side that often stays alive in matches without ever looking fully in control of them. They’re not getting blown away every week. They’re just not doing enough to turn tight games into wins. That’s a nasty place to be.
There’s also a familiar pattern running through their results. Padova have conceded first in six straight league matches, and once that happens they look stretched. At Frosinone, they were second best for large spells, managing just 0.92 xG while allowing 2.64 at the other end. Eleven shots to 24. Two on target to eight. That wasn’t a one-off. It was the latest example of a team spending too much time chasing games. They’ll need a sharper start here, because falling behind again would leave them leaning on hope rather than structure.
Empoli Form & Analysis
Empoli arrive in slightly better shape, though that’s faint praise given the table and the results. They lost 1-0 away to Sampdoria on 6 April, a game in which they failed to register a single shot on target. That was a flat performance, and it came on the heels of a 4-2 home win over Pescara that briefly suggested they might build some momentum. Instead, they’ve been inconsistent for weeks. A 1-1 draw at Spezia and a 2-2 draw at home to Mantova showed a side that can compete, but not close games out. Before the Pescara win, they’d lost 3-2 at Catanzaro and 2-1 at Bari.
The away record is mixed, and that matters here. Empoli have won four, drawn two and lost ten on the road, scoring 17 and conceding 28. That’s not the profile of a strong travelling team. Far from it. Still, they do tend to create chances away from home, and they’ve got enough about them to find the net in games where the opposition hands them openings. The issue is that their defensive line has too often been too easy to play through. If they’re forced into a wide-open contest, they usually end up in trouble.
Mind you, Empoli do have one clear edge in this fixture: they’re used to scoring against Padova. They’ve found the net in seven of the last nine meetings, and they’ve also scored three against them in the reverse fixture this season, winning 3-1 on 23 August 2025. That won’t decide Sunday’s game on its own, but it does hint at a matchup where Empoli’s attack has generally found enough space. Add in their own run of nine BTTS games in ten, and you can see why they don’t look like a side built to keep things clean and tidy.
Head-to-Head
The recent history between these clubs leans Empoli’s way. They beat Padova 3-1 earlier this season, and that result fits a longer pattern of Empoli being hard for Padova to contain. Over the last nine meetings, both teams have scored in seven. That’s not a fluke. It speaks to a fixture that usually produces chances at both ends, even when one side has the better of the result.
Padova do have a couple of older wins in the mix, and there have been draws too, but the more recent meetings point to Empoli carrying the sharper edge. Four of the last nine have gone Empoli’s way without a loss for Padova in any of the last four. Still, the bigger theme is goals at both ends. That’s the thread worth following here.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 4/5 here, and it feels like the strongest angle on the board. Padova keep conceding first and have done so in six straight league games, but they’ve also shown just enough at home to nick a goal of their own. Empoli, for their part, have been one of the league’s more reliable BTTS sides, landing that outcome in nine of their last ten and scoring in seven of the last nine against Padova. That combination is hard to ignore.
The 1-1 correct score looks right as well. Padova’s home record is messy rather than hopeless, and Empoli’s away numbers are poor enough to stop them looking like clear favourites. Both teams have had enough attacking moments recently, but neither has shown the control needed to shut a match down for 90 minutes. If you want a small angle alongside the main pick, the draw is the natural lean. A low-stakes, even contest feels more likely than a clean win for either side.
