Pergolettese return home needing a response after two defeats in their last three league games, but their record at this ground is still a useful base for a home win. They have taken 17 points from 17 home matches, with five wins already, and they have generally kept games competitive in front of their own crowd. Aurora Pro Patria arrive with a far weaker away record: only one win in 16 trips, plus four draws and 11 losses.

The visiting side’s recent numbers do little to calm that away concern. Aurora Pro Patria have gone seven league matches without a win and come here after conceding four at home to Lecco, a match in which they allowed 13 shots on target. Pergolettese, meanwhile, have at least shown they can edge tight games at home, beating Pro Vercelli and Triestina earlier in the month, which fits a match where the stronger home side should have enough to find a result.

There is a small tension here in that Pergolettese have not been completely secure defensively, with four straight league games without a clean sheet, and they have also lost their most recent outing. Even so, Aurora Pro Patria’s away scoring record is modest at 11 goals in 16 matches, and their overall total of 20 league defeats underlines how often they fail to turn draws into points. The head-to-head also leans away from the visitors: Pergolettese won the reverse league meeting here last season, and the pattern has often favoured the home side in this fixture.

My prediction is Home Win at 7/10. Pergolettese have five home wins already this season, while Aurora Pro Patria have managed only one away victory all league campaign. The visitors are also seven matches without a win, and their latest away loss came at Lumezzane. Pergolettese have been inconsistent, but their home record is still far stronger than Aurora Pro Patria’s travel form.

Pergolettese should have enough to take the points, especially against a side with 11 away goals in 16 matches and 11 away defeats. The 2-1 correct score projection does leave room for Aurora Pro Patria to score, which fits Pergolettese’s recent clean-sheet issues, but the match result still points toward the home side.