Poland U19 arrive with mixed recent results, but there is enough going on at both ends to make this a tricky assignment. They have found the net in four of their last five listed games, including the 2-0 away win over Slovakia U19 on Tuesday, while also suffering defeats at home to Montenegro U19 and away to France U19. That sort of profile keeps the door open for Portugal U19 to get on top, even if Poland’s attacking output prevents a completely straightforward away pick.

Portugal U19’s recent league form is less dramatic than Poland’s, yet the key detail is that they have stayed hard to keep out. They scored against Türkiye U19 and Wales U19 before losing narrowly away to England U19, and the database notes they have not kept a clean sheet in five straight games. That fits a match where Portugal can still edge it, but it also warns against expecting a comfortable shutout, especially with Poland having already scored in several of their recent outings.

The head-to-head record leans Portugal’s way as well, with three wins from the last four meetings and no losses in that sequence. Portugal also beat Poland 4-0 in November 2024, though that result sits higher than the current xG projection here and may be hard to repeat. Even so, the same matchup history gives Portugal a useful edge in the market because Poland have gone without a clean sheet in four of those meetings.

Poland’s recent home defeat to Montenegro U19 and Portugal’s narrow away loss to England U19 both point to a contest that may stay close rather than one-sided. The xG line of 1.1 for Poland and 1.4 for Portugal supports that view, with Portugal holding a modest attacking edge rather than a dominant one. That is enough for an away-backed angle, but not enough to ignore the chance that Poland make it uncomfortable and keep the margin tight.

My prediction is Away Win at 4/5. Portugal have the stronger head-to-head record, winning three of the last four meetings and avoiding defeat in all four. They have also scored in five straight games, while Poland have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of those recent head-to-heads. The projected 1.4 to 1.1 xG split points to Portugal having the slight edge needed to take all three points.