Poland bring the stronger result profile into Thursday evening’s playoff. They have gone five matches without defeat, taking three wins and two draws since the loss on 10 June, and they beat Malta 3-2 on 17 November after earlier drawing twice with the Netherlands. For a Home Win pick, the key point is that Poland have repeatedly avoided setbacks against better opposition than Albania have faced in recent weeks.

Albania’s recent numbers are respectable, but the case against the away side is that their wins have been narrow and low-margin. They beat Andorra, Serbia and Latvia all by a single goal, then lost 2-0 at home to England in their latest outing, producing only 0.6 xG while allowing 1.7 xGA. Their last six bring three wins, two draws and one defeat, yet they have scored more than once in none of those matches.

One useful supporting angle is Poland’s recent habit of striking first. They have scored the opening goal in each of their last five matches, and that matters for a match-result bet because Albania’s recent away wins were all by 1-0 margins, so conceding first would force them away from the kind of game state that has suited them. Jan Urban’s side also created enough in the Malta win for the result market to remain onside even though the defensive display was loose.

The head-to-head record offers limited but still relevant support for the home side. Poland have won three of the last four meetings with Albania, including a 1-0 home victory in March 2023 and a 4-1 win in the 2021 World Cup qualifiers. The awkward part is that Albania did win the most recent meeting 2-0 in September 2023, and the projected 2-1 scoreline also hints this may not be entirely comfortable.

My prediction is Home Win at 1.67. Poland are five games unbeaten, Albania come here off a home loss to England in which they created little, and Poland have scored first in five straight matches. The recent head-to-heads also lean Poland’s way, with three wins from the last four meetings.